12vStig
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Registered: 23rd Dec 07
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in the pub the other day watchin the footy and my mate, not really a footy man himself but a mathmatical genius, started rambling on about how he doesn't see how people lose money betting on football matches... he went on and on about certain situations that make it impossible to lose by betting... basicly im not the brightest knife in the drawer but this is the general gist...
at a cup final when there cannot be a draw and it is certain one team WILL win, as long as there is not an odds on favourite you cannot lose money by betting both sides... e.g. say last seasons FA cup final man utd v chelsea
for arguments sake we say man united were 2-1 and chelsea 3-1
you place a tenner on man utd and chelsea, this costs you £20
BALANCE SO FAR -£20
if man utd win at 2-1 you win 20+ your 10stake thus 30
BALANCE SO FAR +£10
OR!!!!!!!
if chelsea win at 3-1 you win 30 plus ur 10 stake thus 40
BALANCE SO FAR +£20
is he onto something? who fancies a few hundred on the champions league final???
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Nath
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Registered: 3rd Apr 02
Location: MK
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It'd never be 2/1 and 3/1. It'd be nearer 5/4 and 5/6. There is always a favourite and their odds will be tight. Bookies aren't stupid.
[Edited on 09-03-2008 by Nath]
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strick206
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Registered: 12th Apr 07
Location: Wigan Drives:Integra DC5
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quote:
Originally posted by 12vStig
i basicly im not the brightest knife in the drawer
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strick206
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Registered: 12th Apr 07
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Right, your mathematical genius hasn't considered the fact that in an FA Cup final, there can be a draw
A draw in 90 minutes will mean extra time, so all bets on the 90minute market on either team to win will be a loser
As far as lifting the cup goes, bookmakers will never put odds for both teams to win the cup at anything better than both 10/11
As with even money the bookmaker cannot win
And it is very rare to see both teams 10/11 to lift the cup
I work for a bookmakers, and they aren't stupid, the saying, the bookmaker always wins isn't just made up
Summary: His theory, won't work, that is 100% fact 
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Danny P
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Registered: 20th Nov 02
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Also bets are settled after 90 mins, so what if it goes to extra time & penalties, by the time you'd covered all eventuallities, there is no way you could make money.
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
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As Strick and Danny said, when games can go to extra time its always the result after 90mins that counts.
So your mate might be good at maths, but he knows nothing about betting.
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12vStig
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Registered: 23rd Dec 07
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lol... i knew there was something thanks all
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strick206
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Registered: 12th Apr 07
Location: Wigan Drives:Integra DC5
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
So your mate might be good at maths, but he knows nothing about betting.
That is basically what i was getting at 
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strick206
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Registered: 12th Apr 07
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When there is an opportunity in a market in which it is impossible to lose. It is called arbitrage
Which is when there is an inperfection in a market which someone takes advantage of.
To do so, you have to have a very large bank roll, and the imperfections are not around for long. (More common on the stock market)
If it happens in betting, and a company offers bets in which they cannot win, they have something which is called palpable errors, and in the event of one, all bets are void
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12vStig
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Registered: 23rd Dec 07
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nice work lol
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strick206
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Registered: 12th Apr 07
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lolz
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Danny P
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Registered: 20th Nov 02
Location: Cleckheaton, West Yorkshire
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To be fair when I was younger (about 11 or so) I thought that if you bet on a normall match, with equal amounts on all outcomes (win/draw/lose) then you'd make money, despite my dad telling me this wouldn't work, I didnt listern and made him go put £1 on each outcome, needless to say he was right, and my dream of becoming a millionaire was crushed 
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Richie B
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Registered: 18th Apr 04
Location: Newcastle
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Even if it went to extra time, you wouldn't win with a winner backed because that'd be classed as a draw in the 90 minutes on play, as stated on the slips etc.
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Hammer
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Registered: 11th Feb 04
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Sounds like a great wee plan i may try it for the next cup final!
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Nismo
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Registered: 12th Sep 02
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In betting on cup finals and that there is a draw as you only ever bet over the course of 90mins.
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MatthewR
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Registered: 21st Oct 02
Location: Rickmansworth
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would you like to bet with me  PLEASE
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Paul_J
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Registered: 6th Jun 02
Location: London
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dumbest idea ever, what a mathmatical genius he must be 
sounds like a complete retard.
As already mentioned...
The bookies will lay it...
Betting in 90 mins
Win, Draw, Lose
The odds will be even ish for win or lose (possibly just a bit higher or lower), and fairly high in comparison for a draw...
3 way split, so you can't cover all 3, if you bet on one way and the other way to make money, even if the odds were over even on both ways, you'd have to bet ALOT of money to make money back, which is risky considering it could be a draw within 90 mins and you'd lose it all!
Alternatively, they'll offer 1 team to win another team to win overall... (usually lift the cup or qualify)
but the odds will be no where near even, at best just below even either way... so if you bet money on both, you'll lose money!
Bookies arn't dumb, and if there was a easy technique like that available, then everyone would do it and bookies would go out of business.
Tell your mate that!
There is however, a way that your mates theory can be done, which is by playing 1 bookies off against another, as odds will differ slightly on some bookies...
So bookie one may have, Team 1 9/8 to win, Team 2 4/5 to win.
bookies number two may have Team 1 3/5 to win and Team 2 5/4.
So place a LARGE bet at 1 bookies on Team 1 to win and place a LARGE bet on Team 2 to win at the other bookies.
You now have 2 bets on 9/8 - guarenteed to make you money.
But for every £8 spent you're only gonna get £9 back.
So if you spend £4,000 one way, and £4,000 the other way..
You've spent £8,000 - when you win, you'll get £4000 back, plus £4500 winnings... £8500. Total profit £500
Fair enough, but it's a lot of money to lay out and it's very rare that these exist!!! and if they do, they generally have only slight differences, so you probably won't make much.
The other thing is to do risk assessment and cover the bets cleverly... using each ways and accumulators in certain circumstances etc... but at the end of the day, you have to remember nothing is definate and anything can happen!
Tell your mate he's a idiot.
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12vStig
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Registered: 23rd Dec 07
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hes been told... as he was telling me i knew there was something... ahhh well another money making scheme down the drain
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Bram
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Registered: 25th Mar 02
Location: Derby
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quote:
Originally posted by strick206
quote:
Originally posted by 12vStig
i basicly im not the brightest knife in the drawer
Said it all for me too!
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Dan
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Registered: 22nd Apr 02
Location: Gorleston on Sea, Norfolk
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There is a good method by using lay bets and early prices to guarentee no loss, but they dont happen to often.
Eg...
Horse X is at 10/1 a week before the race. You bet £1 on it.
The day of the race, the horse is now on a lay of evens. U put £1 on it.
Now, if the horse wins, u return £11
If the horse loses u return £2, meaning u dont win or lose a penny.
Adult GiftsClick here to vist us
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Jamie Walby
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Registered: 15th Nov 04
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I am goin to put £1 on each English batsmen to score the most runs in their 2nd innings. I cant go wrong. Cheers mate.
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3CorsaMeal
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Registered: 11th Apr 02
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there is a way to do it with horse racing, but you not always guaranteed to win but more than likely you do and usually only small amounts.
you really need to be able to risk lots of money to get anywhere
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Hammer
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Registered: 11th Feb 04
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Eck
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Registered: 17th Apr 06
Location: Lundin Links, Fife
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That face will go along the way of the 
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12vStig
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Registered: 23rd Dec 07
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quote:
Originally posted by Hammer
Im still convinced i can take gold from the equator, take it to one of the poles where gravity is stronger and the gold heavier and make money
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