Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
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http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/autoexpressnews/270052/scrappage_cuts_road_death_rate.html
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XE Col
Premium Member
Registered: 23rd May 10
Location: Rochdale, AKA:Boissy07
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Rich H
Member
Registered: 26th Oct 05
Location: West Sussex Drives: E46 M3
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@ the comments at the bottom too.
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Corsa_Sport21
Member
Registered: 13th Apr 08
Location: Leven, Fife. Drives : 205 GTi
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And who's to say it isn't true??
Seems pretty logical.
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oceansoul
Member
Registered: 19th Jun 06
Location: Sunbury, Surrey
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All cars over 10 years are "bangers" now are they?
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DannyB
Premium Member
Registered: 6th Feb 08
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There could be an element of truth in it, older cars are less likely to be looked after as well as newer cars, not repaired properly or even at all. All could contribute to an accident.
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CarbonMike
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Registered: 30th Jul 11
Location: West Midlands
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This is true (DannyB's comment Re not looked after) BUT also, dont forget the reason as to WHY the scrappage scheme started....
No fucker had any money, less people were driving, less people were buying new etc etc.
IF less people are driving day to day, then obviously the % of accidents will drop as theres not as many people on the road.
But I do fully agree Auto Express talk shít anyway
[Edited on 31-07-2011 by CarbonMike]
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Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
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quote:
Originally posted by Corsa_Sport21
And who's to say it isn't true??
Seems pretty logical.
Because academically and as a piece of research, it's complete balls.
It's not based on proper figures and even if it was, it would be woefully difficult to extrapolate that conclusion from data which has a great many other factors.
The guy from Auto Express even replies in the comments to say that this story hadn't been reported before. Probably I would guess because most other news organisations decided they didn't want to look like noobs with no skills in statistics or correlation.
If you assume road deaths to be a function of aggregate road mileage, then you only need to find something that has reduced aggregate road mileage and you have the same trend explained in a different way.
By definition, the scrappage scheme DID NOT reduce road mileage because of course old cars were traded for new cars.
Factors like the cost of fuel, the cost and availability of parking and even whether people have jobs to drive to DO affect it, but this is just as loose a correlation because it's not substantiated by data.
So you drop the assumption about road mileage and look at the number of deaths as a percentage of the number of accidents. I would take a complete guess that this figure is falling and that fewer RTAs result in fatality as a percentage of all RTAs but again - this was going to happen anyway as the vehicular population is naturally scrapped just because people change their cars anyway. You are less likely to die in a newer car. But that's not because of a government scheme, that's because the market and also separate legislation dictates that newer cars are safer.
To claim that the scrappage scheme is responsible for road safety is laughable.
quote:
The Scrappage Scheme didn’t only save new car buyers a lot of money – it saved lives, too.
Journalistically this is true, but only in the same way that me not going out today may have also done so. And I don't need a story about how me staying in the house all day has contributed to road safety. That would obviously be a stupid story designed for stupid people. Which is why there's a similar one in Auto Express.
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Rob R
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Registered: 31st May 03
Location: Kent
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I'd say it's more to do with people begrudging to pay £1.36 a litre and use public transport instead now
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CarbonMike
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Registered: 30th Jul 11
Location: West Midlands
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quote:
Originally posted by Rob R
I'd say it's more to do with people begrudging to pay £1.36 a litre and use public transport instead now
Exactly that!
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Steve
Premium Member
Registered: 30th Mar 02
Location: Worcestershire Drives: Defender
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Owning a banger ftw 
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Corsa_Sport21
Member
Registered: 13th Apr 08
Location: Leven, Fife. Drives : 205 GTi
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What has todays fuel prices got to do with a so called survey of road deaths between 2009 and 2010??
This article could be a load of shite, but then again, it could be true.
If newer cars are safer, then RTA's will be reduced surely??
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Jambo
Member
Registered: 8th Sep 01
Location: Maidenhead, Drives: VXR Arctic
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quote:
Originally posted by Steve
Owning a banger ftw
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Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
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quote:
Originally posted by Corsa_Sport21
This article could be a load of shite, but then again, it could be true.
That's my point - it's supposition.
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Corsa_Sport21
Member
Registered: 13th Apr 08
Location: Leven, Fife. Drives : 205 GTi
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Yeah thats true.
But then again, it could also be playing a major part in it.
You are clearly making out that its complete nonsense.
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Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
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quote:
AA road safety spokesman Andrew Howard said: “Scrappage took out the 10-year-old vehicles that would have become a teen driver’s car. It means vital safety technology is finally filtering through to younger motorists – the group that needs it most.”
What is that based on? Research? Stats?
Take a look on this web site - how many people were used the scrappage scheme to get a newer car? Very few.
Question your teenage friends. How many did the same?
Survey youth in general - how many of them went straight to the Hyundai dealer and bought a shiny new old lady car - and how many kept cars from the brands that they knew.
How many swapped a Corsa B for a D?
And is the D safer? You'd have to be trying fairly hard for the safety features on a brand new car to affect the outcome of an accident compared to an older one. If you're going to die in a collision, ABS won't help you in the majority of cases. May reduce the number of minor collisions but it won't affect how fast you're going when you hit the wall.
I'm not disputing new cars are safer, that is clearly the case. I just find it very dubious to claim it's as a result of financial incentives which were designed to assist the economy and in that article, it's backed up by guesswork.
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pow
Premium Member
Registered: 11th Sep 06
Location: Hazlemere, Buckinghamshire
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Ooooo the IAM will be all over this
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gardenspoon
Member
Registered: 23rd Apr 11
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I'd agree; it is an article built on speculation - not facts.
I personally disliked the scrappage scheme as their motive was making money and not really environmental issues - that sounds like speculation too, but the facts are simple - building a car chucks out a lot more pollution than driving an old car that still works. The article is using the same kind of 'fuzzy' logic, and will be taken-in by the same kind of people that went for the scheme in the first place. Expect a lot of closed-minded do-gooders to take this on-board.
However, Auto-Express only convey motoring news, they don't really offer opinions. (with the exception of Mike Rutherford of course) A couple of months back they had article about Britain's most vandalised cars, the Lexus IS-200 being the worst hit. A week or so after the survey Esure insurance suggested that this was because Steve Coogan's character, Alan Partridge drove one ... what?! Now that is bollocks!
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andy1868
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Registered: 22nd Jun 06
Location: Burscough, Lancashire
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i started using head and shoulders to wash my hair instead of tesco's own shampoo in 2009, could this also be accredited to lowering the road fatalities figures?
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sc0ott
Member
Registered: 16th Feb 09
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Will asda bring out 'chosen by you' insurance policies which will cost half as much as elsewhere?
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ed
Member
Registered: 10th Sep 03
User status: Offline
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Seems logical but the change isn't that great in the grand scheme of things and there isn't enough data taken into consideration to be able to make such a claim.
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