SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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I am keeping an eye on the markets right now, I still think we are seeing a dead cat bounce but this insane printing magic money out of thin air is unprecedented so god knows what is going to happen.
After its death spiral bitcoin is doing pretty well, remains to see wether it will decouple from FOREX stocks or perhaps go down with the ship if we see the crash.
It's so bizarre to see headlines of 26 Million Americans unemployed whilst stocks continue to pump 
I've been unable to secure an interview, have applied for a few IT contracts which made a point of saying they were doing remote interviews. Also applied for quite a few local min wage jobs just to keep me occupied and some income but no joy. I expect we could be in a situation of 100's or 1000's of applicants for the few jobs (other than care jobs) that are around.
The amount of hospitality and retail workers than stand to be dumped on the market is frightening.
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gavin18787
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Registered: 22nd Feb 05
Location: Basildon, Essex
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It's going to become even more tricky for sure. At first it seemed that there would be loads of jobs in supermarkets and deliveries etc. However as restrictions ease slightly and people arnt panicking to buy things the need has stabilised.
And as you say it's whole groups/industries out of work and fighting for the same roles 
[Edited on 24-04-2020 by gavin18787]
Drives supercharged Tec with torque  
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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I've literally giving up job hunting now, its a complete waste of time until we get through this mess. The Bank of Japan has started unlimited QE Fed style today, perhaps all this crazy money printing will keep the economy propped long enough until it re-opens world wide. I still feel it is kicking the can down the road though, 11 years of bull market... It can't go up forever.
Looking at retraining, the pilot things truly is dead for the next few years so I think it's back to IT for me. Had enough of being a Project Manager and want to go back to techy, looking at getting MS Azure Dev Ops engineer certified. Training would be virtual classroom at the moment but better than sitting around waiting for lockdown to end.
What is everyone else up to work wise? furloughed? anyone at threat of redundancy?
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RichR
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Registered: 17th Oct 01
Location: Waterhouses, Staffordshire
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I’m fortunately, ridiculously busy. My wife is an area manager for Aldi, she was on mat. leave and not due back until September but has gone back early to help out. The company I’m with is seeing around 35% year on year growth, whilst we’ve lost university and some business customers, we have picked up hundreds, if not thousands of smaller, private customers. Example being that traditionally we’d take around 200 orders over the course of a weekend, we’re currently running at 700. We’re actually now struggling to keep on top of it all but just managing; not sure we can cope with much more. I’m currently working from my dining table though but with VOIP and full cloud based ERP, I’m probably actually more productive than if I was in the office.
[Edited on 27-04-2020 by RichR]
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Kyle T
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Registered: 11th Sep 04
Location: Selby, North Yorkshire
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Pretty busy here too, my business has always been WFH based so operationally we haven't changed much. Some of the technology we sell/implement allows for remote working for businesses so it's obviously seen a boom in demand.
We do expect to go quiet soon though, all projects have been halted other than those that allow a business to keep the wheels churning.
Seth we do a lot of work with Azure so gimme a shout if you have any specific queries, less so on the development side and more on the infrastructure side - but still can help navigate round the certification structure etc if needed.
Lotus Elise 111R
Impreza WRX STi
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SetH
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quote:
Originally posted by Kyle TSeth we do a lot of work with Azure so gimme a shout if you have any specific queries, less so on the development side and more on the infrastructure side - but still can help navigate round the certification structure etc if needed.
Thank you mate I appreciate that, I have a bit of a dilemma with wether to follow the INF or DEV route right now.
I had 10 years as a Wintel support engineer, so all Infrastructure background. The last 10 Years as an IT PM, mostly Infrastructure projects as opposed to DEV Work.
If I am unable to break into a full fat role as an azure engineer be it DEV or INF my fallback is that the Azure certification will add another string to my bow as a Project Manager. Effectively I could market myself as an Azure certified PM and ride the waves of Azure migrations over the coming years. If I were to that then the DEV route would make more sense? as during an azure migration project my project team would be mostly Dev's and at project closure we would be handing over to infrastructure teams.
Thoughts? PM if you like, cheers 
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gavin18787
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Registered: 22nd Feb 05
Location: Basildon, Essex
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Both busy here. Pharmacy within the NHS so busy myself and other half is a solicitor and still busy as apparently the criminals are not working from home 
Only downer is that she is working from home doing conference calls with clients. So if I am at home I am generally getting shouted at for been in the way 
Drives supercharged Tec with torque
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Kyle T
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Registered: 11th Sep 04
Location: Selby, North Yorkshire
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quote:
Originally posted by SetH
quote:
Originally posted by Kyle TSeth we do a lot of work with Azure so gimme a shout if you have any specific queries, less so on the development side and more on the infrastructure side - but still can help navigate round the certification structure etc if needed.
Thank you mate I appreciate that, I have a bit of a dilemma with wether to follow the INF or DEV route right now.
I had 10 years as a Wintel support engineer, so all Infrastructure background. The last 10 Years as an IT PM, mostly Infrastructure projects as opposed to DEV Work.
If I am unable to break into a full fat role as an azure engineer be it DEV or INF my fallback is that the Azure certification will add another string to my bow as a Project Manager. Effectively I could market myself as an Azure certified PM and ride the waves of Azure migrations over the coming years. If I were to that then the DEV route would make more sense? as during an azure migration project my project team would be mostly Dev's and at project closure we would be handing over to infrastructure teams.
Thoughts? PM if you like, cheers
It's a tough one, seems like we've had similar IT backgrounds I transitioned more from a networking and compute side rather than development and SQL. Sometimes it feels like the Azure platform is doing its best to squeeze people with our skills out of the equation. MS often seem to live in a dream world where a Dev can just be lobbed the keys to an Azure subscription and be expected to spin up whatever he needs without involving a SQL or infrastructure bod. Luckily security and compliance gets in the way of that dreamworld!
Being able to market yourself as an Azure PM with some architectural capabilities would be very valuable I'd have thought. It's less about keeping up with the technologies (it's my full time job and I can barely keep up sometimes) and more about understanding the concepts and how they differ from legacy on-premises concepts.
Most of the work we take on is getting an organisation "cloud ready" in the first instance, so extending domains, networking and security and then helping the customer organisation establish a governance framework - usually in the form of some kind of managed service. Their devs and application teams request their interpretation of what they think they need, and we either advise otherwise or implement it depending on how close they got to the right solution - sort of a middle ground between solutions architecture, technical architecture, security/compliance and infrastructure support.
Lotus Elise 111R
Impreza WRX STi
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Mother of god, the full force of this is hitting the airlines now, absolute decimation.. look at the stock prices. Warren buffet sold ALL his airline stock holdings.
Stay at home really will not age well. screenshot this and check back with me in 6 months. The public are so flippant about the economy, most thinking they won't be affected. We won't be able to money print our way out of this.
All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>
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DaveyLC
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Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
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quote:
Originally posted by SetH
All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>
That is far from true though.. Influenza has a much shorter incubation period, is far less contagious (especially before symptoms show) and has a significantly lower mortality rate.
Covid-19 is almost unique in how it is so contagious long before symptoms show and even more so that many people are asymptomatic so they are super-spreaders.
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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quote:
Originally posted by DaveyLC
quote:
Originally posted by SetH
All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>
That is far from true though.. Influenza has a much shorter incubation period, is far less contagious (especially before symptoms show) and has a significantly lower mortality rate.
Covid-19 is almost unique in how it is so contagious long before symptoms show and even more so that many people are asymptomatic so they are super-spreaders.
I was not talking abut the incubation period or how contagious it was, I am aware of both of those factors.
As for the lethality rate, well it depends what data set you are looking at and which Scientists you choose to listen to. I hope you are not using Neil Fergusons
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DaveyLC
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Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
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quote:
Originally posted by SetH
quote:
Originally posted by DaveyLC
quote:
Originally posted by SetH
All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>
That is far from true though.. Influenza has a much shorter incubation period, is far less contagious (especially before symptoms show) and has a significantly lower mortality rate.
Covid-19 is almost unique in how it is so contagious long before symptoms show and even more so that many people are asymptomatic so they are super-spreaders.
I was not talking abut the incubation period or how contagious it was, I am aware of both of those factors.
But these are important factors that completely change how the virus can propagate, viruses cannot move nor can they multiply they rely on host cells and shedding.. Clearly if the virus cells are being shed before symptoms are displayed people move around more and infect exponentially more people.
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SetH
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I don't disagree with those points. I was stating that the lethality is no worse than a bad seasonal influenza. Note my use of the word 'bad' as particularly I was referring to the more severe influenza outbreaks over the last few decades. we have had some mild influenza seasons where there have only been 4000 or so deaths.
8 weeks on we have so much data and here is just a selection of leading experts stating that its comparable to influenza. I've looked at the data, I am not going to waste time replicating it here but I stand by my original statement in the light of not seeing any evidence that suggests otherwise.
I think there is still so much cognitive dissonance amongst people still, like they want to feed of the hysteria or have become dependent on it. One guy that has been messaging me on Instagram is almost like Heath Ledgers joker, it's like he wants neil fergusons model to have been the reality.
Stanford professor John Ioannidis explains in an interview with CNN that Covid19 is a „widespread and mild disease“ comparable to influenza (flu) for the general population, while patients in nursing homes and hospitals should receive extra protection.
The Swiss chief physician for infectiology, Dr. Pietro Vernazza, explains in a new interview that the Covid19 disease is „mild for the vast majority of people“. The „counting of infected people and the call for more tests“ would not help much. In addition, most of the people listed in the corona statistics would not die solely from Covid-19. The lethality rate of Covid-19 is „in the order of magnitude of a seasonal flu“.
German virologist Hendrik Streeck explains the final results of his pioneering antibody study. Streeck found a Covid19 lethality of 0.36%, but explains in the interview that this is an upper limit and the lethality is probably in the range of 0.24 to 0.26% or even below
Epidemiologist Dr Knut Wittkowski explains in a new interview that the danger of Covid19 is comparable to an influenza and that the peak was already passed in most countries before the lockdown. The lockdown of entire societies was a „catastrophic decision“ without benefits but causing enormous damage. The most important measure is the protection of nursing homes. Bill Gates‘ statements on Covid19 are „absurd“ and „have nothing to do with reality“, a vaccination against Covid19 is not necessary. The influential Covid19 model of the British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was a „complete failure“.
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SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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Forgot about this.
Here is the data from 47 studies all over the world.
You are welcome 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABcg8gUPA*ueSky9g9dRRZ12nz6gNzug#
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Cybermonkey
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Registered: 22nd Sep 02
Location: Sydney, Australia
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That fatality rate above Seth is completely wrong. Looking at raw numbers alone for New York, the death rate is 0.8%, or ~1 death per 150 infections. That is far worse than the worst flu season.
The rate in people aged over 80 is a staggering 15%. It is extremely lethal to older folk. To say it is no worse than seasonal flu is completely wrong
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DaveyLC
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Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
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quote:
Originally posted by SetH
I don't disagree with those points. I was stating that the lethality is no worse than a bad seasonal influenza. Note my use of the word 'bad' as particularly I was referring to the more severe influenza outbreaks over the last few decades. we have had some mild influenza seasons where there have only been 4000 or so deaths.
Its overall "Lethality" is directly proportional to how rapidly/easily a virus can spread.. That's like saying a 9mm semi-automatic pistol is no more dangerous than an Uzi.. Yes in both instances the "bullet" has a vaguely similar chance of killing you but the Uzi is going to fire far more bullets in far more random directions.
Look at HIV for example even with modern treatments the mortality rate is still high but I'd have no problem being in a room FULL of HIV patients as I know its a very very very low level contagion, but I wouldn't fancy my chances in a room full of even asymptomatic covid-19 sufferers, shedding their virus all over the place without even knowing about it.
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Ian
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Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
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I tend to subscribe to Davey's angle - that you can't disassociate the propagation from lethality.
Look at Ebola, didn't arrive in the UK because no one lasted that long to get it here. That's less lethal on paper but fuck being in that room.
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Ian
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Registered: 28th Aug 99
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So that was nice and clear.
I still maintain they are after herd immunity but can't say it.
Also pissing me off the number on people on Facebook who are complaining that its vague. The same people who would call him a Tory murderer if he came out and said it.
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DaveyLC
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I honestly believe there was a deliberate campaign to spread the idea of lockdown being "relaxed" so the government could give an agile response on sunday that reflected public feeling without actually committing to extending it or relaxing it.
The new "slogan" is clearly flexible enough to cover both outcomes.
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Fonz
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Registered: 12th May 06
Location: Newbury, Berks
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Also pissing me off the number on people on Facebook who are complaining that its vague.
Snap - within minutes it was over my news feed people asking what does it mean/can i now do X - as if FB has an answer clearer than Boris's own words - for those 20 minutes facebook was alive with experts!
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Ian
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Registered: 28th Aug 99
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What I find remarkable is the selective congratulations.
Sweden employed minor changes to some aspects of life - congratulated for being so liberal.
UK attempted to ask for common sense and was berated for acting slowly.
Germany locked down quickly and in doing so have very low spread which is why they now have a second wave. Congratulated for acting fast.
Spain put military on the streets, congratulated for being decisive.
UK took some time to lock down but eventually put one in place, criticised for removing human rights and damaging mental health.
It seems every angle has supporters and critics. Which is why it is no surprise at all to me that he can't do right for doing wrong. I also don't need to watch his address to the nation to know his plan.
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whitter45
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Registered: 15th Nov 02
Location: Norton
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not read it all but salary of a low cost airline pilot is not great considerign the invetsment you make and also the repsonisbility you have 2 matetes who started with Ryanair
Ryanair also expect you to fly for free unitl you get a route allocated - i.e on standby
one stayed and is now locked in - cant get into the major airles
other flies Qatar but hates living in Doha
need to get into the bigger airlines but if you want to be a cpatian will take you up to 4times as long
[Edited on 28-05-2020 by whitter45]
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DaveyLC
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Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian
What I find remarkable is the selective congratulations.
Sweden employed minor changes to some aspects of life - congratulated for being so liberal.
UK attempted to ask for common sense and was berated for acting slowly.
Germany locked down quickly and in doing so have very low spread which is why they now have a second wave. Congratulated for acting fast.
Spain put military on the streets, congratulated for being decisive.
UK took some time to lock down but eventually put one in place, criticised for removing human rights and damaging mental health.
It seems every angle has supporters and critics. Which is why it is no surprise at all to me that he can't do right for doing wrong. I also don't need to watch his address to the nation to know his plan.
Its all down to how compliant the population is.. In countries like China the state has SIGNIFICANTLY more "physical influence" over its population while they are also very compliant anyway so they can get things under control.. There are plenty of western countries that also have a compliant and sensible population but when you look at countries like the UK and the USA which are full of selfish pricks who've never been told No combined with a government that can't touch them you have a problem..
I'm in no way suggesting our government should have more powers to restrain the public but what I am saying is we should stop being a bunch of selfish island dwelling pricks.
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Ian
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See I see that differently. Compare Sweden where the lockdown was effectively voluntary but ended up being economically similar. So although places were open people didn't go, even though they had the choice to go if they wished. The reduction in economic activity which you may argue is a reflection of the mobility of the population was similar.
So you might say Sweden is not a bunch of selfish island dwelling pricks on account of their altruism and compliance to voluntary advice without being forced.
But also I watched some interviews where Swedish people were very much more accepting of the fact that people needed to die and that locking down immediately and decisively isn't actually a solution.
Can you imagine your average UK citizen, or anyone in power, or anyone in any noteworthy position at all going on TV with those same attitudes? It would not be palatable. I may be repeating myself, can't remember what I've written on here.
That for me does more to discriminate the two countries than claiming this country is not compliant and can't be told 'no'.
I've probably said in this thread or others that people who go out are selfish but my view is mellowing. In the context of some quite obfuscatory advice you are going to get the spectrum of outcomes, at one end the "selfish" people who bend the rules and go do their own thing (which is on the sly what the policy is designed to do anyway) and the other end the danger danger over-cautious people who want to stay locked up because they are particularly risk-averse. Some with good reason.
And its all by design.
Same as this announcement on Thursday that you can do stuff next Monday. If that's not an invitation to bend the rules I don't know what is. So instead of one massive rush to all visit people in one day you have a gradual ramping of the people who immediately say fuck that if I can do it Monday I'm doing it right away, all the way to the aforementioned risk-averse who will adopt far slower.
It is the selfish people who will be the early adopters and you might argue they are foul of the rules but if you examine the rules pragmatically you may also conclude that its completely deliberate. Also if you were being conspiratorial you might say its also done so that's who you can blame. Also a government decision.
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DaveyLC
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Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Can you imagine your average UK citizen, or anyone in power, or anyone in any noteworthy position at all going on TV with those same attitudes? It would not be palatable. I may be repeating myself, can't remember what I've written on here.
Although he did put it rather more eloquently:
quote:
Boris Johnson: Well it’s a very, very important question, and that’s where a lot of the debate has been and one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do.
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