Paul_J
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Registered: 6th Jun 02
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i love how derrens blog site has been pulled as all his fans revolted while watching the show 
and all the news papers are slagging him off already...
quote guardian 'And now he's saying that it was a trick? What? This isn't cleverness, it's just not making sense. I'm disappointed. And back to that old split-screen theory too...'
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Carl
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Registered: 9th May 04
Location: Jimmy Bennett's la la land.
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I do get what you are trying to say by the way, its just it is wrong, you are letting your brain over rule the logic. I wouldn't put sequential numbers on the lottery for your exact reasoning but deep down I know its just as little chance and that is a fact.
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
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Good, he fucking deserves the slagging off.
I love the guy and all his past shows, but tonight was an absolute joke. He either didnt think we'd realise, or just thought we were absolutely stuoid (like babyblade).
The onyl way he is going to come out of this with an ounce of credibility left, is if the rest of these 6 (?) shows that are already recorded are absolutely amazing.
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Cosmo
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quote:
Originally posted by Carl
I do get what you are trying to say by the way, its just it is wrong, you are letting your brain over rule the logic. I wouldn't put sequential numbers on the lottery for your exact reasoning but deep down I know its just as little chance and that is a fact.
You talking to me?
Your problem is you're letting 'logic' over rule probability.
Probability wins out. Yes there is a limit to that (I dont know the exact amount of tickets, but its way way way above what your average person would put on, probably well over £1m), but for anything lower than that every single combination has as much chance of being drawn as another.
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BabyBlade
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Registered: 5th Feb 03
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Well theres nothing like a good debate.
Bang on about odds all you want I understand the odds even if you guys think I don't.
At the end of the day its 1 in 14mil chance of winning, so if all of you think thats a good chance then go for it 
I like to expand on that and try to look at ways of reducing those odds, naturally in the eyes of maths its never going to work, but I'm not the first person and I won't be the last to think "if i did it this way I might stand a better chance of winning"
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Cosmo
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
Well theres nothing like a good debate.
Bang on about odds all you want I understand the odds even if you guys think I don't.
At the end of the day its 1 in 14mil chance of winning, so if all of you think thats a good chance then go for it
I like to expand on that and try to look at ways of reducing those odds, naturally in the eyes of maths its never going to work, but I'm not the first person and I won't be the last to think "if i did it this way I might stand a better chance of winning"
This isnt a debate, a debate is when two sides have valid arguments and each tries to persuade the other of their merits.
We all have a valid mathematical argument, you have some personal opinion based on no theory as all. You say you'd like to expand, but you know you couldnt as you'd contradict the same theory you claim to understand.
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ShEp
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Registered: 9th Aug 05
Location: Dingwall, Highland
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Update?
This thread has a new 10pages since earlier.. 
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BabyBlade
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Thats what it comes down to, my opinions?
Maths aside - I am still entitled to these am I not ?
You have your odds, I have previous results over the last 15 years
I feel both sides are valid even if you don't.
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BabyBlade
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quote:
Originally posted by ShEp
Update?
This thread has a new 10pages since earlier..
Basically I said putting the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 was pointless 
[Edited on 12-09-2009 by BabyBlade]
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Cosmo
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quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
Thats what it comes down to, my opinions?
Maths aside - I am still entitled to these am I not ?
You have your odds, I have previous results over the last 15 years
I feel both sides are valid even if you don't.
You can have an opinion on something that isnt factual based. Its like me saying my opinion of number 1 is in fact its called number 2.
And NO ffs, how can you claim to understand probability, yet you say you have the previous 15yrs results. THE MEAN SHIT when it comes to the next draw.
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Paul_J
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Registered: 6th Jun 02
Location: London
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quote:
Originally posted by ShEp
Update?
This thread has a new 10pages since earlier..
Basically, I was right... Split screen theory...
Derren Brown instead did a Gordon Brown and failed badly on tv... instead of admitting the reality, claiming that either A ) he used a bunch of 24 people to guess the numbers and took the average of their guesses or B ) he broke into camelot and rigged the machine
Utter nonsense on both.
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Carl
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Registered: 9th May 04
Location: Jimmy Bennett's la la land.
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by Carl
I do get what you are trying to say by the way, its just it is wrong, you are letting your brain over rule the logic. I wouldn't put sequential numbers on the lottery for your exact reasoning but deep down I know its just as little chance and that is a fact.
You talking to me?
Your problem is you're letting 'logic' over rule probability.
Probability wins out. Yes there is a limit to that (I dont know the exact amount of tickets, but its way way way above what your average person would put on, probably well over £1m), but for anything lower than that every single combination has as much chance of being drawn as another.
I wasn't talking to you, was aimed at babyblade.
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BabyBlade
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Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
quote:
Originally posted by BabyBlade
Thats what it comes down to, my opinions?
Maths aside - I am still entitled to these am I not ?
You have your odds, I have previous results over the last 15 years
I feel both sides are valid even if you don't.
You can have an opinion on something that isnt factual based. Its like me saying my opinion of number 1 is in fact its called number 2.
And NO ffs, how can you claim to understand probability, yet you say you have the previous 15yrs results. THE MEAN SHIT when it comes to the next draw.
Why am i even argueing with you? You were wrong in the first place 
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BabyBlade
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Registered: 5th Feb 03
Location: Hereford Rides: Ninja 600
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
Anyway, my two lines are...
6, 10, 25, 32, 47, 48
6, 10, 22, 25, 32, 47
Regardless of the cost, you still decided to put 2 lines of 6 unconsecutive numbers on even though earlier you said there is more of a chance of winning with consecutive numbers.
Like your picture, I can no longer take you seriously,
And If anyone really wants to take the lottery seriously, work out how much you pay a week, work that out for the year, and then put it all on one draw for the year, much better odds than playing weekly 
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12vStig
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Registered: 23rd Dec 07
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if that end ball didnt move 1mm... then i think i could've bought his show tonight.
As it stands the "split-screen" theory is the best fitting and also as we didnt see any revealing angles from the 2nd camera man it all adds up to back this.
Shame really, as having watched Derren bounce back from the whole russian roulette debacle, and cementing himself as a truly great entertainer he looks to have done himself no favours today... UNLESS I cant get out of my seat next week...
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M2RTY
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Registered: 25th May 01
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Listen up, Cosmo is right but there is a bit of a mix up here...
Lets pic 123456 as our numbers
There is 720 possible combinations of these 6 numbers being drawn IN ANY ORDER (the important part here is IN ANY ORDER)
so the chance of you getting all 6 numbers drawn is:
6 out of 49
5 out of 48
4 out of 47
3 out of 46
2 out of 45
1 out of 44
NOW...
the above is based on a random order, hence the 6 out of 49 etc...
BUT...
I think blade's missunderstanding is that of getting your numbers out in CORRECT order (123456). As there is only 1 possible combination this would be...
1 out of 49
1 out of 48
1 out of 47
1 out of 46
1 out of 45
1 out of 44
So getting the exact numbers in the exact order is less likely
But neverless, 123456 has the same probabillity as any other 6 number
[Edited on 12-09-2009 by M2RTY]
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ljames555
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Registered: 2nd Sep 03
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quote:
Originally posted by Cosmo
BTW- was that just an advert for next weeks Euromillions @ £85m? If so how do they know that as this weeks £37m hasnt been drawn/no won yet.
Or is it a special?
I also thought this advert was bit soon when it had just been drawn.
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Hammer
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Registered: 11th Feb 04
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Can someone give me a summary of this thread? Is Derren Brown the baby Jesus (bows head) or not?
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AndyKent
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Registered: 3rd Sep 05
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Derren made it all up, Cosmo is right (as usual), Paul doesn't believe any of it and is convinced he got it right first time (camera trick) and BabyBlade can't grasp the idea odds (despite saying dozens of time he does, then blatantly showing to everyone that he doesn't).
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Hammer
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Registered: 11th Feb 04
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I was believing you up 'til the point you said Cosmo is always right.
Has Paul thought about it too much, typed up enormous replies and then made a youtube video about it by any chance?
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AndyKent
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Registered: 3rd Sep 05
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Was sarcasm.
And yes, did you even have to ask
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Hammer
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Registered: 11th Feb 04
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Cosmo
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Registered: 29th Mar 01
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Im not right, maths is right and thats all I am repeating in here! I didnt invent how probability works.
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Gavin
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Registered: 3rd Apr 02
Location: West Midlands
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Prefer to watch Paul Daniels than seeing this fool failing.... epically!!!
pew pew pew pewwwww
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AndyKent
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Registered: 3rd Sep 05
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But whilst banging on about probability though you've missed that his explanation had nothing to do with probability at all, it was (apparently) a clever way of guessing, not changing the probability in the slightest.
If you've talking about BabyBlade though, your probability is bang on
[Edited on 12-09-2009 by AndyKent]
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