SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
I am changing my view somewhat, can't really argue with any of the above.
Only point 2 though, my misses classed as frail with diabetes, how does that affect my ability to work. So point 2 is really old, frail and anyone who lives with etc. Which actually won't look dissimilar to lockdown opened up to "strong" first like re-opening schools/uni/young working age etc.
Yes the wording could be better to include 'vulnerable'
Have you checked SWPRS site recently? lot's of updates over the last few days.
Note the studies on covid lethality , numerous countries, some good data in varied environments/locales putting it at 0.1 to 0.36% on average.
Quite the fucking difference from 5% which induced hysteria.
|
SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
Just re-read your point. I would say it is looking like she would need to remain locked down and protected. As you live with her you would need to be locked down too. I expect that is the advice the government will issue when they finally start publishing their strategy.
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
Can we talk about these 15,000 people coming in on flights. Not sure if that is daily/weekly?
So there are people asking for airports to close. When actually this goes back to my herd immunity on the quiet policy.
So we might lose people but they are either not UK nationals in which case we will probably exclude them from our figures. Or they are UK but we can say oh they came home from Sweden/Italy/China/etc. so we couldn't influence their infection prior to them arriving.
Also if they go on to infect more we can say we were repatriating which is necessary but at the mercy of infection which was out of our hands.
I reckon airports won't close and this is just a herd policy on the quiet.
My analogy is you have a bath tub in which the plug is open slightly but you're also filling it from the tap.
The plug hole is removed cases, ie. recovered or dead.
The tap filling is new cases.
The water level is NHS capacity.
Now you don't want to run the bath dry because that'll look like a fuss over nothing. So you need to add water at such a rate that the level is basically constant.
Also you don't want the water level too high because the overflow is avoidable deaths because you exhausted healthcare.
The goal will be to keep the water level constant. To that end airports are a nice flow of people through the books. And if the water level gets a bit low that's when we lift domestic movements. Or if it was getting higher we might close airports but that's not looking like the case just now.
Anyone arguing airports should close, and I've been saying similar myself and since changed my view, is missing the herd immunity element of why its probably important that they stay open.
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Have you checked SWPRS site recently? lot's of updates over the last few days.
Not yet but I will, makes me feel happier 
|
SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Have you checked SWPRS site recently? lot's of updates over the last few days.
Not yet but I will, makes me feel happier
It's my go to source, anything of interest I go and read the article and the study if available. Anything that is not referenced I don't bother with (From sources other than SWPRS).
|
SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
Great Analogy there.
Problem with closing airports is it hits supply lines, food, medicine, trade etc.
Herd immunity on the quiet has been happening since December right? 
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Herd immunity on the quiet has been happening since December right?
Yes never went away. Building sites etc. I think I did join in saying close them its not safe but I now realise that the tap needed to stay on, quite clearly deliberate. Loads on FB just now trying post-mortem Boris's decisions like he failed. Whereas this is coordinated as fuck, I think they were far more focused on the exit plan that we gave them credit for.
|
DaveyLC
Member
Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Can we talk about these 15,000 people coming in on flights. Not sure if that is daily/weekly?
.
This is a misinformation that keeps getting re-shared.. The government quoted that on the 25th of march 15,000/day had been repatriated however currently the only lights coming into the UK are repatriation and essential flights (i.e. pharma, diplomatic etc.)..
People have been sharing arrivals lists for Heathrow which show loads of flights but they are not realising that there is only one operational runway and the flights are grouped up sometimes 5-6 flights at the same landing time, this is because they are code shares, i.e. there are SO FEW passengers that only one plane is flying the multiple schedules and even that will have barely anyone on it..
Me and my wife are also in the industry so to speak and can categorically tell you this is not true, we also live a stones throw from heathrow and we see about 2-3 planes a day at the moment which used to be more like 30-40..
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
Guilty as charged, I didn't check the figures.
Also would have spotted codes shares so I'm a bit disappointed I didn't go looking
My point was the flow of people is actually also the ticket out. Guess they're not incoming people then. Need to rely on taxi drivers and builders instead. then.
What you working on these days anyway? Are you still in the motor trade as well or is/was that a hobby?
|
gavin18787
Premium Member
Registered: 22nd Feb 05
Location: Basildon, Essex
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Which leads me on to a gripe which I should check which is Hancock saying that people who die in service could have caught it somewhere else and not while they were working. Which is a fucking disgraceful thing to say to someone who has died having worked in a hospital that they could have caught it down the shops.
Bloke came across as a complete twat with this comment combined with the comment about the lack of PPE been due to staff been wastful with it.
Certainly smashed moral down at work with that one.
Enjoyed reading the comments Ian and feel it does sound like a plausible outcome.
It is Quietening down at our hospital at present but we are still pushing forward with building works for extra capacity.
Only way to safely lift the restrictions and get back to normal is with a vaccine. All other avenues revert back to the heard immunity.
So if they can do it in the way Ian mentioned and deflect some of the future deaths away its a winning solution on their part.
Although interestingly there is no firm study to confirm you get immunity from having the virus. Although that reverts back to the age old testing debate
Drives supercharged Tec with torque  
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
Yes no proven immunity after infection but I think in cases where people have apparently had it twice there is some doubt whether the testing was accurate.
ie. First test wasn't accurate, second test wasn't accurate or the first antibody test ignored antigens meaning although antibodies were present the virus was still viable.
I would think the basic premise is that you being immune on the basis that how else would you get better?
The only other question is whether mutations vitiate the vaccine which would be far worse news than if it turns out the false positives are a testing anomaly.
|
DaveyLC
Member
Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Guilty as charged, I didn't check the figures.
Also would have spotted codes shares so I'm a bit disappointed I didn't go looking
My point was the flow of people is actually also the ticket out. Guess they're not incoming people then. Need to rely on taxi drivers and builders instead. then.
What you working on these days anyway? Are you still in the motor trade as well or is/was that a hobby?
Car stuff has always been a hobby - lots of my family are in the trade so I get sucked in..
I've been in logistics (software) for the last 20+ years..
|
DaveyLC
Member
Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Yes no proven immunity after infection but I think in cases where people have apparently had it twice there is some doubt whether the testing was accurate.
I think the poor tests are the issue here plus I WANT to think that as if there is no natural immunity to be gained then no traditional vaccines are going to work and we're all royally f***ed
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
You want the vaccine to be useless? You really do love a bargain
|
SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
No updates on the SWPRS site since 18th 
Perhaps I will start research this gates foundation conspiracy
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
You reckon Gates needs more money?
|
SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
You reckon Gates needs more money?
Maybe he genuinely is a philanthropist
I have no looked into this conspiracy, just seen mentions of it so in truth I have no idea. Trying to focus on the science but i may investigate the tin foil hat stuff for shits and giggles.
|
gavin18787
Premium Member
Registered: 22nd Feb 05
Location: Basildon, Essex
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Yes no proven immunity after infection but I think in cases where people have apparently had it twice there is some doubt whether the testing was accurate.
ie. First test wasn't accurate, second test wasn't accurate or the first antibody test ignored antigens meaning although antibodies were present the virus was still viable.
I would think the basic premise is that you being immune on the basis that how else would you get better?
The only other question is whether mutations vitiate the vaccine which would be far worse news than if it turns out the false positives are a testing anomaly.
Quite true.
Thankfully it doesnt seem to be mutating too rapidly as far as I have heard. Although I know that there was a concern at one point.
Yer its game over for a vaccine if it was to turn out to be something like the HIV virus.
Drives supercharged Tec with torque
|
SetH
Member
Registered: 15th Jul 01
User status: Offline
|
Ian some great updates on that site just now, I have only skim read but will go through properly in the Morning.
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
Sound will take a look as well
|
DaveyLC
Member
Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
You want the vaccine to be useless? You really do love a bargain
As in I want to believe there is natural immunity so a vaccine will work.. All of the reporting around this Virus is so negative - they can't all be right
|
gavin18787
Premium Member
Registered: 22nd Feb 05
Location: Basildon, Essex
User status: Offline
|
SWPRS? What is this that you was mentioning?
Drives supercharged Tec with torque
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
|
DaveyLC
Member
Registered: 8th Oct 08
Location: Berkshire
User status: Offline
|
quote:
Originally posted by Ian
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
"According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO."
I love stuff like this.. Absolutely ZERO evidence or source identification to back up any claims..
Other than a few re-shared of blog posts etc...
[Edited on 23-04-2020 by DaveyLC]
I'm editing this again because I've been clicking on a few of the links many of which are articles written during/after the SARS outbreaks (Cov-2)..
[Edited on 23-04-2020 by DaveyLC]
|
Ian
Site Administrator
Registered: 28th Aug 99
Location: Liverpool
User status: Offline
|
Lethality goes down as tests go up though right
|
